Will FS Jelgava win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 83¢ · $346 held · ended Oct 25

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$346.01

Combined PnL

-$7.39

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 82.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$267.89

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$14.52

Yes2 traders

Total Value$78.12

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$7.12

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78¢	$156	$150	-$6	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 81¢	$115.2	$106.64	-$8.57	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$35.44	$42.48	+$7.04	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$35.56	$35.64	+$0.08	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$11.2	$11.25	+$0.05	55% 4838-4027 (8865)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$156

Value

$150

PnL

-$6

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$115.2

Value

$106.64

PnL

-$8.57

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.44

Value

$42.48

PnL

+$7.04

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.56

Value

$35.64

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.