Will BFC Daugavpils win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.2K
$228.66
49.5¢ → 77¢
+55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 47.4¢ | $549.94 | $829.56 | +$279.63 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $330.78 | $159.67 | -$33.9 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $147.37 | $125.42 | -$21.95 | 55% 1297-1044 (2341) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 65.8¢ | $100.01 | $104.16 | +$4.15 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 51.1¢ | $11.9 | $15.93 | +$4.03 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $8 | $4.7 | -$3.3 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
Invested
$549.94
Value
$829.56
PnL
+$279.63
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$330.78
Value
$159.67
PnL
-$33.9
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$147.37
Value
$125.42
PnL
-$21.95
Record
55%
1297-1044 (2341)
Invested
$100.01
Value
$104.16
PnL
+$4.15
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.9
Value
$15.93
PnL
+$4.03
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
Invested
$8
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$3.3
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.