FK Grobina vs. Riga FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
-$145.81
78.5¢ → 82.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 80¢ | $961.17 | $833.54 | -$127.63 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 76.3¢ | $184.5 | $170.05 | -$14.45 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $20.04 | $22.14 | +$2.1 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54.8¢ | $11.72 | $14.66 | +$1.9 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $19.97 | $12.23 | -$7.74 | 61% 8644-5579 (14223) |
Invested
$961.17
Value
$833.54
PnL
-$127.63
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
Invested
$184.5
Value
$170.05
PnL
-$14.45
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
Invested
$20.04
Value
$22.14
PnL
+$2.1
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.72
Value
$14.66
PnL
+$1.9
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$19.97
Value
$12.23
PnL
-$7.74
Record
61%
8644-5579 (14223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.