Will Vilnius FK Zalgiris win on 2026-10-26?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $898 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$897.51
-$10.62
74.4¢ → 79¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $609.54 | $594.52 | -$8.07 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 73¢ | $154.78 | $155.84 | +$1.06 | 50% 2208-2217 (4425) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 76.1¢ | $74.83 | $72.3 | -$2.52 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $41.1 | $41.12 | +$0.03 | 54% 5749-4838 (10587) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $34.83 | $33.72 | -$1.11 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$609.54
Value
$594.52
PnL
-$8.07
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$154.78
Value
$155.84
PnL
+$1.06
Record
50%
2208-2217 (4425)
Invested
$74.83
Value
$72.3
PnL
-$2.52
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$41.1
Value
$41.12
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
5749-4838 (10587)
Invested
$34.83
Value
$33.72
PnL
-$1.11
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.