Will FK Kauno Zalgiris vs. Vilnius FK Zalgiris end in a draw?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $444 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$444.12
-$2.89
73¢ → 59.5¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 73¢ | $392.7 | $387.32 | -$5.38 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $42.51 | $44.08 | +$1.57 | 50% 17407-17735 (35142) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $5.19 | $6.34 | +$1.15 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.65 | $3.6 | -$0.05 | 54% 5749-4838 (10587) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $1.63 | $1.64 | +$0.01 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $1.33 | $1.13 | -$0.2 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
Invested
$392.7
Value
$387.32
PnL
-$5.38
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$42.51
Value
$44.08
PnL
+$1.57
Record
50%
17407-17735 (35142)
Invested
$5.19
Value
$6.34
PnL
+$1.15
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
5749-4838 (10587)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$1.64
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$0.2
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.