Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on October 26?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $193 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$193.41
$10.21
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $130.9 | $149.45 | +$45.92 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.4¢ | $42.5 | $83.35 | +$40.85 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55¢ | $52.74 | $66.11 | +$5.07 | |
00 0x005e...6d8e<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $25.45 | $25.45 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $5 | $13.19 | +$8.19 | 38% 67-108 (175) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $3.3 | $5.32 | +$2.02 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$130.9
Value
$149.45
PnL
+$45.92
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
Invested
$25.45
Value
$25.45
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$5
Value
$13.19
PnL
+$8.19
Record
38%
67-108 (175)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$2.02
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.