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No
balthazarCTR<$100NoYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100NoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on October 26?
Resolved Yes. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$27.59
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$27.59
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27.01 | — | -$27.59 | 56% 171-137 (308) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 18410-11080 (29490) |
12 123987456<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 1742-2057 (3799) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 5578-4110 (9688) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$27.01
Value
—
PnL
-$27.59
Record
56%
171-137 (308)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
18410-11080 (29490)
12
123987456<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
1742-2057 (3799)
BE
berlinskies<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
5578-4110 (9688)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
AJ
AJSVCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1436a224...4b8344
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-shanghai-on-october-26-2026-16c