Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 43¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 27

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$84.47

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 43¢

-23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,457

Combined PnL+$106.97

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,452

Combined PnL-$191.44

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Underavg 56¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$93.11	57% 1029-767 (1796)
StudyPrediction	Overavg 43.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$35.64	54% 4416-3828 (8244)
VE veliMax	Overavg 46¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$153.98	65% 42-23 (65)
AM am100CTR	Underavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.54	55% 1104-886 (1990)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 50¢	$78.17	$84.17	+$6	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
PL pltrkr111CTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$69.63	$71.49	+$1.87	55% 701-573 (1274)
GH ghorrock	Overavg 57¢	$184.34	$49.42	-$7.82	57% 12489-9413 (21902)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$38	$40.46	+$2.46	69% 2961-1334 (4295)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$20	$19.75	-$0.25	63% 1003-581 (1584)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$18.62	$17.86	-$0.76	63% 6058-3547 (9605)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Under

Invested

$3,394.84

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$93.11

Record

57%

1029-767 (1796)

StudyPrediction

Over

Invested

$2,105.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$35.64

Record

54%

4416-3828 (8244)

veliMax

Over

Invested

$2,023.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$153.98

Record

65%

42-23 (65)

am100CTR

Under

Invested

$1,201.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.54

Record

55%

1104-886 (1990)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$78.17

Value

$84.17

PnL

+$6

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

pltrkr111CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.63

Value

$71.49

PnL

+$1.87

Record

55%

701-573 (1274)

ghorrock

Over

Invested

$184.34

Value

$49.42

PnL

-$7.82

Record

57%

12489-9413 (21902)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38

Value

$40.46

PnL

+$2.46

Record

69%

2961-1334 (4295)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$19.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

63%

1003-581 (1584)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.62

Value

$17.86

PnL

-$0.76

Record

63%

6058-3547 (9605)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.