Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Liquid, while the market favors Anyone's Legend (56%). 46 of 92 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner

46 of 92 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (50%) · Team Liquid at 44¢ · $656K held · ends Oct 27

Team Liquid44¢Anyone's Legend56¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$656.1K

Combined PnL

$53.6K

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 43.5¢

-11% since entry · 46 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

46 of 92 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Anyone's Legend 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed46 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid44%

Anyone's Legend56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid46 traders

Total Value$448.7K

Total Shares769,225

Combined PnL+$58.5K

Anyone's Legend46 traders

Total Value$173.0K

Total Shares349,966

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Team Liquid — 50%Anyone's Legend — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO MooseborzoiiiCTR	Team Liquidavg 46.5¢	$151.3K	$151.3K	+$64.38	40% 19-28 (47)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Team Liquidavg 46.4¢	$64.1K	$105.5K	+$41.3K	53% 896-787 (1683)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Team Liquidavg 43.7¢	$35.4K	$34.4K	$-1.0K	58% 1836-1323 (3159)
Nooserac	Anyone's Legendavg 52.9¢	$25.7K	$26.5K	+$763.67	52% 5643-5194 (10837)
0xheavy888CTR	Team Liquidavg 66.1¢	$17.2K	$20.9K	+$3.7K	56% 6726-5390 (12116)
solo88888CTR	Team Liquidavg 54.9¢	$13.7K	$20.9K	+$7.2K	41% 177-256 (433)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Anyone's Legendavg 52.9¢	$16.3K	$17.4K	+$1.1K	54% 2450-2103 (4553)
dodsterbotCTR	Team Liquidavg 45.2¢	$14.7K	$16.7K	+$2.1K	46% 614-716 (1330)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Anyone's Legendavg 53¢	$16.5K	$16.3K	-$155.27	54% 1151-981 (2132)
YO yong32ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 72.7¢	$13.7K	$13.9K	+$107.45	71% 35-14 (49)
└ Anyone's Legend leg	Anyone's Legendavg 23.8¢	$3.2K	$7.5K	+$4.4K
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 72.7¢	$10.6K	$6.3K	$-4.2K
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Anyone's Legendavg 53¢	$13.3K	$13.4K	+$125	50% 1171-1176 (2347)
zb8CTR	Team Liquidavg 59.6¢	$8.1K	$11.3K	+$3.2K	53% 599-529 (1128)
Anjun	Anyone's Legendavg 53¢	$11.2K	$11.3K	+$105.55	56% 4838-3824 (8662)
US Username2133ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 77.1¢	$13.3K	$10.9K	$-2.4K	55% 77-63 (140)
└ Anyone's Legend leg	Anyone's Legendavg 52¢	$6.5K	$7.1K	+$562.14
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 77.1¢	$6.8K	$3.8K	$-3.0K
LF lfg100k	Anyone's Legendavg 63¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$79.37	62% 467-286 (753)
PROBABILITYTRADER	Anyone's Legendavg 53¢	$8.5K	$8.5K	+$79.83	42% 1061-1442 (2503)
PE penguin1125	Anyone's Legendavg 54¢	$8.3K	$8.4K	+$76.52	48% 102-112 (214)
JustADonkCTR	Team Liquidavg 79.2¢	$7.7K	$7.8K	+$124.21	55% 868-716 (1584)
JA Ja888CTR	Team Liquidavg 76¢	$8.2K	$7.4K	+$650.31	71% 36-15 (51)
LI lightningboltsARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 72.2¢	$7.8K	$7.4K	-$457.99	57% 595-457 (1052)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 72.2¢	$6.3K	$5.8K	-$493.95
└ Anyone's Legend leg	Anyone's Legendavg 32.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$35.96
LI LinkE5CTR	Team Liquidavg 38¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$88.55	48% 683-751 (1434)
enpirugbrptiCTR	Team Liquidavg 45.5¢	$6.6K	$6.5K	-$148.81	54% 3490-2949 (6439)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Anyone's Legendavg 53¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$60	50% 539-539 (1078)
PA para-VisionCTR	Team Liquidavg 70¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$43.38	56% 191-148 (339)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Anyone's Legendavg 63.6¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$147.45	57% 1029-767 (1796)

MooseborzoiiiCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$151,275.73

Value

$151.3K

PnL

+$64.38

Record

40%

19-28 (47)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$64,124.29

Value

$105.5K

PnL

+$41.3K

Record

53%

896-787 (1683)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$35,383.66

Value

$34.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

1836-1323 (3159)

Nooserac

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$25,694.36

Value

$26.5K

PnL

+$763.67

Record

52%

5643-5194 (10837)

0xheavy888CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$17,231.85

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

56%

6726-5390 (12116)

solo88888CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$13,724.11

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

41%

177-256 (433)

THEHIGHLIFE

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$16,309

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

2450-2103 (4553)

dodsterbotCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$14,742.38

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

46%

614-716 (1330)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$16,458.82

Value

$16.3K

PnL

-$155.27

Record

54%

1151-981 (2132)

yong32ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$13,748.05

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$107.45

Record

71%

35-14 (49)

Both legs:

Anyone's Legend$3,177.1323.8¢+$4.4K

Team Liquid$10,570.9272.7¢$-4.2K

Gooooooollllllllll

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$13,250

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$125

Record

50%

1171-1176 (2347)

zb8CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,072.81

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

53%

599-529 (1128)

Anjun

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$11,188.29

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$105.55

Record

56%

4838-3824 (8662)

Username2133ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$13,286.55

Value

$10.9K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

55%

77-63 (140)

Both legs:

Anyone's Legend$6,499.1452¢+$562.14

Team Liquid$6,787.4277.1¢$-3.0K

lfg100k

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$79.37

Record

62%

467-286 (753)

PROBABILITYTRADER

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$8,462.41

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$79.83

Record

42%

1061-1442 (2503)

penguin1125

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$8,340.4

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$76.52

Record

48%

102-112 (214)

JustADonkCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$7,665.47

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$124.21

Record

55%

868-716 (1584)

Ja888CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,241.4

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$650.31

Record

71%

36-15 (51)

lightningboltsARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$7,840.6

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$457.99

Record

57%

595-457 (1052)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$6,262.7572.2¢-$493.95

Anyone's Legend$1,577.8532.8¢+$35.96

LinkE5CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,729.8

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$88.55

Record

48%

683-751 (1434)

enpirugbrptiCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,633.04

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$148.81

Record

54%

3490-2949 (6439)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$6,360

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$60

Record

50%

539-539 (1078)

para-VisionCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,072.52

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$43.38

Record

56%

191-148 (339)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$4,856.75

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$147.45

Record

57%

1029-767 (1796)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

46 of 92 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Anyone's Legend 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed46 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.