Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 39¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$2.6K
-$573.38
52.4¢ → 38.5¢
-27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO Gooooooollllllllll | Underavg 60¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$42.77 | 50% 1133-1147 (2280) |
AM am100CTR | Overavg 62¢ | $1.5K | $909.6 | -$594.28 | 56% 1074-855 (1929) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 38¢ | $259.75 | $263.17 | +$3.42 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
JI jiafanCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $212.3 | $209.5 | -$2.79 | 60% 1428-967 (2395) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $210 | $187.5 | -$22.5 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
Invested
$1,026.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$42.77
Record
50%
1133-1147 (2280)
Invested
$1,503.88
Value
$909.6
PnL
-$594.28
Record
56%
1074-855 (1929)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$259.75
Value
$263.17
PnL
+$3.42
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$212.3
Value
$209.5
PnL
-$2.79
Record
60%
1428-967 (2395)
Invested
$210
Value
$187.5
PnL
-$22.5
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.