Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 27

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$288.1

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 100¢

+90% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares12,280

Combined PnL+$308.09

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,486

Combined PnL-$19.99

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Underavg 45¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$31.27	50% 1171-1176 (2347)
HO HongweiqianCTR	Overavg 55¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$26	47% 198-221 (419)
NE newwman	Underavg 53.8¢	$889.21	$1.2K	+$406	52% 866-785 (1651)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.55	99% 12306-175 (12481)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$910	-$90	51% 1128-1071 (2199)
StudyPredictionCTR	Overavg 52¢	$724.06	$758.34	+$34.28	54% 4416-3828 (8244)
A8 a8999CTR	Overavg 54¢	$681.08	$687.39	+$6.31	45% 1009-1247 (2256)
MA MaktManCTR	Overavg 54¢	$594.35	$599.85	+$5.5	52% 30-28 (58)
Up0nly	Underavg 49.9¢	$512.02	$352.92	-$17.22	68% 950-448 (1398)
SB sbimbgCTR	Overavg 63¢	$315	$272.5	-$42.5	69% 2961-1334 (4295)
CC ccllar	Underavg 47.2¢	$204	$196.61	-$7.39	46% 381-449 (830)
Xeny<$100	Underavg 93.4¢	$83.56	$70.24	-$13.32	60% 968-653 (1621)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 50¢	$20	$18.2	-$1.8	67% 22663-11132 (33795)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR<$100	Overavg 47.2¢	$15.57	$17.99	+$2.42	45% 853-1026 (1879)

Gooooooollllllllll

Under

Invested

$2,814.07

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$31.27

Record

50%

1171-1176 (2347)

HongweiqianCTR

Over

Invested

$2,860.08

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$26

Record

47%

198-221 (419)

newwman

Under

Invested

$889.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$406

Record

52%

866-785 (1651)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$1,104.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.55

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$910

PnL

-$90

Record

51%

1128-1071 (2199)

StudyPredictionCTR

Over

Invested

$724.06

Value

$758.34

PnL

+$34.28

Record

54%

4416-3828 (8244)

a8999CTR

Over

Invested

$681.08

Value

$687.39

PnL

+$6.31

Record

45%

1009-1247 (2256)

MaktManCTR

Over

Invested

$594.35

Value

$599.85

PnL

+$5.5

Record

52%

30-28 (58)

Up0nly

Under

Invested

$512.02

Value

$352.92

PnL

-$17.22

Record

68%

950-448 (1398)

sbimbgCTR

Over

Invested

$315

Value

$272.5

PnL

-$42.5

Record

69%

2961-1334 (4295)

ccllar

Under

Invested

$204

Value

$196.61

PnL

-$7.39

Record

46%

381-449 (830)

Xeny<$100

Under

Invested

$83.56

Value

$70.24

PnL

-$13.32

Record

60%

968-653 (1621)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

67%

22663-11132 (33795)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.57

Value

$17.99

PnL

+$2.42

Record

45%

853-1026 (1879)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.