LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anyone's Legend (40%) · Anyone's Legend at 66¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Anyone's Legend
5
Anyone's Legend 40%
$8.5K
$11.05
65.6¢ → 65.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAnyone's Legend at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Anyone's Legend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Anyone's Legendavg 65.5¢ | $7.6K | $5.0K | +$1.05 | 57% 857-635 (1492) |
AM am100 | Anyone's Legendavg 66¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$11.36 | 56% 937-736 (1673) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Team Liquidavg 34¢ | $3.8K | $1.3K | +$19.08 | 68% 2711-1296 (4007) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | Team Liquidavg 34¢ | $608.96 | $617.92 | +$8.96 | 62% 23-14 (37) |
 BasquetipsterCTR | Team Liquidavg 36¢ | $120 | $113.33 | -$6.67 | 69% 1609-728 (2337) |
Invested
$7,640
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$1.05
Record
57%
857-635 (1492)
Invested
$1,500.05
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$11.36
Record
56%
937-736 (1673)
Invested
$3,815.08
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$19.08
Record
68%
2711-1296 (4007)
Invested
$608.96
Value
$617.92
PnL
+$8.96
Record
62%
23-14 (37)
BasquetipsterCTRInvested
$120
Value
$113.33
PnL
-$6.67
Record
69%
1609-728 (2337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.