Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (33%) · Team Liquid at 56¢ · $31K held · ends Oct 27

Anyone's Legend45¢Team Liquid55¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 33%

Total Value

$31.4K

Combined PnL

-$202.46

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 55.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anyone's Legend45%

Team Liquid56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid2 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares37,089

Combined PnL-$534.55

Anyone's Legend4 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares24,217

Combined PnL+$332.1

Team Liquid — 33%Anyone's Legend — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Liquid 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Anyone's Legend 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Team Liquidavg 57¢	$19.9K	$19.4K	-$525	54% 1140-972 (2112)
vananal0318CTR	Anyone's Legendavg 43¢	$7.3K	$7.6K	+$256.32	53% 411-363 (774)
DR drunkdegenerateCTR	Anyone's Legendavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.59	54% 187-157 (344)
StudyPrediction	Team Liquidavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$9.55	53% 4237-3756 (7993)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Anyone's Legendavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$37.1	57% 932-699 (1631)
AM am100CTR	Anyone's Legendavg 43¢	$661.73	$684.81	+$23.09	56% 1032-825 (1857)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Team Liquid

Invested

$19,950

Value

$19.4K

PnL

-$525

Record

54%

1140-972 (2112)

vananal0318CTR

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$7,347.15

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$256.32

Record

53%

411-363 (774)

drunkdegenerateCTR

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$1,372.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.59

Record

54%

187-157 (344)

StudyPrediction

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,169.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$9.55

Record

53%

4237-3756 (7993)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$1,063.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$37.1

Record

57%

932-699 (1631)

am100CTR

Anyone's Legend

Invested

$661.73

Value

$684.81

PnL

+$23.09

Record

56%

1032-825 (1857)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Liquid 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Anyone's Legend 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.