Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$106.98

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,442

Combined PnL-$44.3

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,433

Combined PnL-$62.68

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 76.1¢	$3.0K	$2.1K	-$900.7	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.8¢	$592.1	$1.4K	+$825.24
└ Over leg	Overavg 76.1¢	$2.4K	$679.83	$-1.7K
TI timetowanderCTR	Overavg 66¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	+$41.62	51% 358-348 (706)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Underavg 33¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$77.43	49% 919-952 (1871)
0X 0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789CTR	Overavg 67¢	$786.89	$781.02	-$5.87	51% 143-140 (283)
EL ElectricyCTR	Overavg 67¢	$715.12	$635.07	-$80.05	62% 355-218 (573)
NE newwman	Underavg 45.5¢	$940.11	$504.47	-$182.23	52% 713-650 (1363)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$428.1	$428.32	+$0.21	99% 9100-129 (9229)
PI pipipi150	Underavg 31.2¢	$124.9	$132	+$7.1	64% 1482-840 (2322)
SP spartachio<$100	Underavg 31¢	$58.41	$76.31	+$17.9	49% 541-552 (1093)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 52.1¢	$32.72	$49.26	+$16.54	71% 17700-7191 (24891)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 40¢	$31.57	$31.93	+$0.37	56% 9231-7382 (16613)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,997.87

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$900.7

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Both legs:

Under$592.132.8¢+$825.24

Over$2,405.7776.1¢$-1.7K

timetowanderCTR

Over

Invested

$1,941.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$41.62

Record

51%

358-348 (706)

Gooooooollllllllll

Under

Invested

$1,277.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$77.43

Record

49%

919-952 (1871)

0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789CTR

Over

Invested

$786.89

Value

$781.02

PnL

-$5.87

Record

51%

143-140 (283)

ElectricyCTR

Over

Invested

$715.12

Value

$635.07

PnL

-$80.05

Record

62%

355-218 (573)

newwman

Under

Invested

$940.11

Value

$504.47

PnL

-$182.23

Record

52%

713-650 (1363)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$428.1

Value

$428.32

PnL

+$0.21

Record

99%

9100-129 (9229)

pipipi150

Under

Invested

$124.9

Value

$132

PnL

+$7.1

Record

64%

1482-840 (2322)

spartachio<$100

Under

Invested

$58.41

Value

$76.31

PnL

+$17.9

Record

49%

541-552 (1093)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$32.72

Value

$49.26

PnL

+$16.54

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$31.57

Value

$31.93

PnL

+$0.37

Record

56%

9231-7382 (16613)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.