LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (75%) · Bilibili Gaming at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Bilibili Gaming
4
Bilibili Gaming 75%
$1.9K
-$10.29
76¢ → 76¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBilibili Gaming at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69 | Bilibili Gamingavg 76¢ | $769.09 | $769.09 | +$0 | 67% 29-14 (43) |
SP sportteryqqCTR | Top Esportsavg 23¢ | $725 | $725 | -$15.76 | 40% 408-616 (1024) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Bilibili Gamingavg 76¢ | $296.05 | $296.05 | +$5.84 | 47% 2366-2633 (4999) |
GH ghorrock | Bilibili Gamingavg 76.2¢ | $147.99 | $147.62 | -$0.38 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
Invested
$769.09
Value
$769.09
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
29-14 (43)
Invested
$725
Value
$725
PnL
-$15.76
Record
40%
408-616 (1024)
Invested
$296.05
Value
$296.05
PnL
+$5.84
Record
47%
2366-2633 (4999)
Invested
$147.99
Value
$147.62
PnL
-$0.38
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.