Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (79%) · Over at 57¢ · $34K held · ends Oct 26

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.0K

Combined PnL

-$140.44

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 57¢

+6% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$22.7K

Total Shares42,548

Combined PnL-$275.82

Under3 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares23,029

Combined PnL+$135.38

Over — 79%Under — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BrotherObama	Overavg 53.5¢	$17.0K	$16.4K	-$645.29	41% 239-340 (579)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Underavg 46¢	$9.2K	$9.3K	+$100	50% 1133-1147 (2280)
DE delacsynzy1	Overavg 55.4¢	$3.6K	$4.0K	+$364.56	51% 411-402 (813)
SB sbimbgCTR	Underavg 45¢	$910.33	$940.67	+$30.34	68% 2831-1307 (4138)
TE teacherbai	Overavg 60¢	$599.4	$599.4	-$0	54% 200-169 (369)
NE newwmanARB<$100	Underavg 41.1¢	$668.3	$572.47	+$0.16	52% 829-757 (1586)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.1¢	$307.55	$299.47	-$8.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.6¢	$271.31	$273	+$8.25
MA MaktMan	Overavg 51¢	$555.12	$560.56	+$5.44	55% 29-24 (53)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Underavg 48¢	$483	$488.03	+$5.03	51% 139-131 (270)
Reformedx	Overavg 52¢	$2.0K	$466.21	-$4.53	52% 755-695 (1450)
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538	Overavg 53¢	$264.99	$267.49	+$2.5	67% 1356-661 (2017)
FR frohp5	Overavg 57.7¢	$222	$217.55	-$4.45	65% 1880-1009 (2889)
A8 a8999	Overavg 52¢	$2.5K	$84.03	+$7.23	45% 986-1210 (2196)
BE berlinskies<$100	Overavg 56.6¢	$67.37	$67.31	-$0.06	58% 5578-4110 (9688)
FL flashclub<$100	Overavg 52¢	$67.6	$66.95	-$0.65	73% 61-23 (84)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 62¢	$10	$9.44	-$0.56	67% 22130-10739 (32869)

BrotherObama

Over

Invested

$17,000

Value

$16.4K

PnL

-$645.29

Record

41%

239-340 (579)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Under

Invested

$9,200

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

50%

1133-1147 (2280)

delacsynzy1

Over

Invested

$3,600

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$364.56

Record

51%

411-402 (813)

sbimbgCTR

Under

Invested

$910.33

Value

$940.67

PnL

+$30.34

Record

68%

2831-1307 (4138)

teacherbai

Over

Invested

$599.4

Value

$599.4

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

200-169 (369)

newwmanARB<$100

Under

Invested

$668.3

Value

$572.47

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

829-757 (1586)

Both legs:

Under$307.5541.1¢-$8.09

Over$271.3159.6¢+$8.25

MaktMan

Over

Invested

$555.12

Value

$560.56

PnL

+$5.44

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Under

Invested

$483

Value

$488.03

PnL

+$5.03

Record

51%

139-131 (270)

Reformedx

Over

Invested

$2,030.72

Value

$466.21

PnL

-$4.53

Record

52%

755-695 (1450)

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538

Over

Invested

$264.99

Value

$267.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

67%

1356-661 (2017)

frohp5

Over

Invested

$222

Value

$217.55

PnL

-$4.45

Record

65%

1880-1009 (2889)

a8999

Over

Invested

$2,473.48

Value

$84.03

PnL

+$7.23

Record

45%

986-1210 (2196)

berlinskies<$100

Over

Invested

$67.37

Value

$67.31

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

5578-4110 (9688)

flashclub<$100

Over

Invested

$67.6

Value

$66.95

PnL

-$0.65

Record

73%

61-23 (84)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$0.56

Record

67%

22130-10739 (32869)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.