LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (50%) · T1 at 88¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 27

T188¢CTBC Flying Oyster12¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

T1 50%

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$122.91

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 87.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

T188%

CTBC Flying Oyster13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

T13 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares23,047

Combined PnL+$115

CTBC Flying Oyster3 traders

Total Value$197.79

Total Shares1,582

Combined PnL+$7.91

T1 — 50%CTBC Flying Oyster — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on T1. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on CTBC Flying Oyster) and the top 1000 (5 on T1) disagree here.

sharpCTBC Flying Oyster 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrCTBC Flying Oyster 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCTBC Flying Oyster 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000T1 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR drunkdegenerate	T1avg 87¢	$13.1K	$13.1K	+$75	54% 182-152 (334)
VI vibing123	T1avg 87¢	$8.0K	$7.0K	+$40	57% 1281-982 (2263)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 12¢	$119.98	$124.98	+$5	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 12¢	$65.41	$68.13	+$2.73	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
GH ghorrock<$100	T1avg 87¢	$41.16	$41.16	+$0	65% 6460-3412 (9872)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 12¢	$4.49	$4.68	+$0.19	47% 1955-2177 (4132)

drunkdegenerate

Invested

$13,050

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

182-152 (334)

vibing123

Invested

$7,999.99

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

57%

1281-982 (2263)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$119.98

Value

$124.98

PnL

+$5

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$65.41

Value

$68.13

PnL

+$2.73

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.16

Value

$41.16

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

1955-2177 (4132)

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on T1. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on CTBC Flying Oyster) and the top 1000 (5 on T1) disagree here.

sharpCTBC Flying Oyster 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrCTBC Flying Oyster 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCTBC Flying Oyster 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000T1 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that T1 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.