Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$7.5K
-$67.28
55¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Underavg 55¢ | $4.3K | $4.2K | -$116.22 | 57% 989-738 (1727) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$60 | 68% 2831-1307 (4138) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Overavg 44.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$5.89 | 53% 4284-3785 (8069) |
AM am100 | Underavg 55¢ | $186.64 | $181.55 | -$5.09 | 56% 1074-855 (1929) |
PL pltrkr111<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $3 | $2.92 | -$0.08 | 55% 697-572 (1269) |
Invested
$4,297.78
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$116.22
Record
57%
989-738 (1727)
Invested
$1,800
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$60
Record
68%
2831-1307 (4138)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$1,261.6
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$5.89
Record
53%
4284-3785 (8069)
Invested
$186.64
Value
$181.55
PnL
-$5.09
Record
56%
1074-855 (1929)
Invested
$3
Value
$2.92
PnL
-$0.08
Record
55%
697-572 (1269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.