Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$3.0K
-$289.68
41.2¢ → 100¢
+143% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Overavg 41.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.2K | -$420 | 54% 4416-3828 (8244) |
A8 a8999 | Overavg 44¢ | $1.1K | $738.7 | -$326.97 | 45% 1009-1247 (2256) |
CC ccllar | Overavg 34.2¢ | $162.82 | $476.39 | +$313.57 | 46% 381-449 (830) |
 Up0nly | Overavg 37.5¢ | $176.22 | $274.43 | +$185.36 | 68% 950-448 (1398) |
SP spartachio | Overavg 38¢ | $251.52 | $201.88 | -$49.64 | 50% 644-642 (1286) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $27 | $99.95 | +$8 | 63% 1003-581 (1584) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,660
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$420
Record
54%
4416-3828 (8244)
Invested
$1,065.67
Value
$738.7
PnL
-$326.97
Record
45%
1009-1247 (2256)
Invested
$162.82
Value
$476.39
PnL
+$313.57
Record
46%
381-449 (830)
Up0nlyInvested
$176.22
Value
$274.43
PnL
+$185.36
Record
68%
950-448 (1398)
Invested
$251.52
Value
$201.88
PnL
-$49.64
Record
50%
644-642 (1286)
Invested
$27
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$8
Record
63%
1003-581 (1584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.