Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$3.3K
-$156.18
54.8¢ → 100¢
+82% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Overavg 54.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | -$180 | 54% 4416-3828 (8244) |
SP spartachio | Overavg 52.5¢ | $659.58 | $728.06 | +$68.48 | 50% 644-642 (1286) |
NE newwmanCTR | Underavg 46.5¢ | $174.72 | $168.96 | -$5.75 | 52% 866-785 (1651) |
 Up0nly | Overavg 81.2¢ | $120.76 | $81.85 | -$38.91 | 68% 950-448 (1398) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $5.04 | $5.04 | -$0 | 67% 22663-11132 (33795) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$2,179.99
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$180
Record
54%
4416-3828 (8244)
Invested
$659.58
Value
$728.06
PnL
+$68.48
Record
50%
644-642 (1286)
Invested
$174.72
Value
$168.96
PnL
-$5.75
Record
52%
866-785 (1651)
Up0nlyInvested
$120.76
Value
$81.85
PnL
-$38.91
Record
68%
950-448 (1398)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0
Record
67%
22663-11132 (33795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.