Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Secret Whales, while the market favors LOS (51%). 34 of 74 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner

34 of 74 top Polymarket traders hold Team Secret Whales (46%) · Team Secret Whales at 50¢ · $854K held · ends Oct 26

LOS51¢Team Secret Whales49¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Secret Whales

Consensus Traders

Team Secret Whales 46%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$854.2K

Combined PnL

$11.5K

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 49.5¢

-16% since entry · 34 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Secret Whales at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Secret Whales

34 of 74 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors LOS 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

LOS51%

Team Secret Whales50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Secret Whales34 traders

Total Value$495.5K

Total Shares831,982

Combined PnL+$3.4K

LOS40 traders

Total Value$333.1K

Total Shares755,187

Combined PnL+$8.0K

Team Secret Whales — 46%LOS — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO MooseborzoiiiCTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 59.5¢	$372.4K	$378.4K	+$6.0K	40% 19-28 (47)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	LOSavg 40.5¢	$79.5K	$81.1K	+$1.5K	53% 894-787 (1681)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616	LOSavg 40.6¢	$35.5K	$42.4K	+$6.9K	50% 1130-1118 (2248)
zb8	LOSavg 40.7¢	$38.9K	$38.7K	-$221.21	53% 599-527 (1126)
PA para-Vision	LOSavg 40¢	$24.0K	$24.3K	+$300	57% 191-147 (338)
PO PotatoKotato	LOSavg 40.7¢	$22.1K	$21.8K	-$272.7	61% 131-84 (215)
25 254321758CTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 61¢	$20.0K	$19.1K	-$815.37	69% 429-196 (625)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	LOSavg 40¢	$20.0K	$18.7K	$-1.2K	54% 2449-2102 (4551)
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 61.3¢	$18.6K	$17.7K	-$856.34	41% 272-397 (669)
47 473gameCTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 58.2¢	$17.5K	$17.6K	+$90.25	39% 346-549 (895)
one8tyfiveCTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 50.1¢	$17.3K	$17.2K	-$197.56	65% 2096-1121 (3217)
Sunshine.Smile	LOSavg 41¢	$15.6K	$15.4K	-$190	58% 1835-1322 (3157)
YO yong32ARB<$100	LOSavg 45.1¢	$10.2K	$10.5K	+$268.4	71% 34-14 (48)
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 45.1¢	$5.8K	$6.4K	+$688.58
└ Team Secret Whales leg	Team Secret Whalesavg 54.6¢	$4.5K	$4.0K	-$420.18
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	LOSavg 40¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$125	54% 1148-977 (2125)
Nooserac	LOSavg 39.2¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$75	52% 5629-5186 (10815)
cs2.quantCTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 59¢	$9.8K	$9.7K	-$82.71	55% 65-53 (118)
3648393489047	LOSavg 49.4¢	$8.5K	$8.9K	+$365.85	61% 1093-692 (1785)
JustADonk	LOSavg 40.1¢	$8.9K	$8.7K	-$121.82	55% 868-715 (1583)
TokennARB<$100	LOSavg 38¢	$8.1K	$8.3K	+$210	48% 640-697 (1337)
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 38¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$60
└ Team Secret Whales leg	Team Secret Whalesavg 59¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$150
US Username2133ARB<$100	Team Secret Whalesavg 60¢	$7.2K	$6.7K	-$427.08	55% 76-63 (139)
└ Team Secret Whales leg	Team Secret Whalesavg 60¢	$4.8K	$4.0K	-$845.58
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 42.8¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$418.5
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 60.1¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$36.54	57% 1020-761 (1781)
saintaphextwin	LOSavg 43.7¢	$4.9K	$5.4K	+$540.65	39% 375-599 (974)
LU luckycat888888	LOSavg 40¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$180	48% 13-14 (27)
MA MaktMan	LOSavg 40.7¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$25	53% 29-26 (55)
solo88888	LOSavg 41¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$50	41% 177-255 (432)

MooseborzoiiiCTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$372,448.69

Value

$378.4K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

40%

19-28 (47)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

LOS

Invested

$79,538.26

Value

$81.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

53%

894-787 (1681)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616

LOS

Invested

$35,472.65

Value

$42.4K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

50%

1130-1118 (2248)

zb8

LOS

Invested

$38,943.92

Value

$38.7K

PnL

-$221.21

Record

53%

599-527 (1126)

para-Vision

LOS

Invested

$24,000

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$300

Record

57%

191-147 (338)

PotatoKotato

LOS

Invested

$22,071.97

Value

$21.8K

PnL

-$272.7

Record

61%

131-84 (215)

254321758CTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$19,999.98

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$815.37

Record

69%

429-196 (625)

THEHIGHLIFE

LOS

Invested

$20,000

Value

$18.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

2449-2102 (4551)

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$18,558.77

Value

$17.7K

PnL

-$856.34

Record

41%

272-397 (669)

473gameCTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$17,468.3

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$90.25

Record

39%

346-549 (895)

one8tyfiveCTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$17,347.77

Value

$17.2K

PnL

-$197.56

Record

65%

2096-1121 (3217)

Sunshine.Smile

LOS

Invested

$15,580

Value

$15.4K

PnL

-$190

Record

58%

1835-1322 (3157)

yong32ARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$10,221.9

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$268.4

Record

71%

34-14 (48)

Both legs:

LOS$5,755.8445.1¢+$688.58

Team Secret Whales$4,466.0654.6¢-$420.18

TAIWANNUMBERONE

LOS

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$125

Record

54%

1148-977 (2125)

Nooserac

LOS

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

52%

5629-5186 (10815)

cs2.quantCTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$9,760.01

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$82.71

Record

55%

65-53 (118)

3648393489047

LOS

Invested

$8,543.89

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$365.85

Record

61%

1093-692 (1785)

JustADonk

LOS

Invested

$8,867.62

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$121.82

Record

55%

868-715 (1583)

TokennARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$8,100

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$210

Record

48%

640-697 (1337)

Both legs:

LOS$4,56038¢+$60

Team Secret Whales$3,54059¢+$150

Username2133ARB<$100

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$7,153.92

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$427.08

Record

55%

76-63 (139)

Both legs:

Team Secret Whales$4,835.2860¢-$845.58

LOS$2,318.6442.8¢+$418.5

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$5,837.4

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$36.54

Record

57%

1020-761 (1781)

saintaphextwin

LOS

Invested

$4,889.75

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$540.65

Record

39%

375-599 (974)

luckycat888888

LOS

Invested

$4,800

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$180

Record

48%

13-14 (27)

MaktMan

LOS

Invested

$4,480

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

29-26 (55)

solo88888

LOS

Invested

$4,099.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$50

Record

41%

177-255 (432)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Secret Whales at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Secret Whales

34 of 74 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors LOS 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Secret Whales wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.