Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$840.98

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,309

Combined PnL+$437.08

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,767

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM am100	Underavg 57¢	$579.86	$1.0K	+$436.93	55% 1104-886 (1990)
A8 a8999CTR	Overavg 43¢	$1.5K	$908.9	-$594.28	45% 1009-1247 (2256)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$291.02	$291.16	+$0.15	99% 12306-175 (12481)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	Overavg 42¢	$376.74	$233.22	-$143.52	45% 853-1026 (1879)
Up0nlyCTR	Overavg 42.6¢	$1.2K	$0.59	-$502.55	68% 950-448 (1398)
iceblue-CTR<$100	Overavg 19.4¢	$37.81	$0.1	-$37.71	43% 774-1037 (1811)

am100

Under

Invested

$579.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$436.93

Record

55%

1104-886 (1990)

a8999CTR

Over

Invested

$1,503.18

Value

$908.9

PnL

-$594.28

Record

45%

1009-1247 (2256)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$291.02

Value

$291.16

PnL

+$0.15

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

Over

Invested

$376.74

Value

$233.22

PnL

-$143.52

Record

45%

853-1026 (1879)

Up0nlyCTR

Over

Invested

$1,179.67

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$502.55

Record

68%

950-448 (1398)

iceblue-CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.81

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$37.71

Record

43%

774-1037 (1811)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.