LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Secret Whales (60%) · Team Secret Whales at 61¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 26
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Neutral
Team Secret Whales
5
Team Secret Whales 60%
$11.7K
$48.49
59.9¢ → 60.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Secret Whales at 61%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Team Secret Whales. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Team Secret Whalesavg 60.1¢ | $9.7K | $5.9K | +$38.65 | 57% 857-635 (1492) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | LOSavg 40¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$38.1 | 62% 23-14 (37) |
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha | Team Secret Whalesavg 59¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$45.35 | 54% 49-42 (91) |
SB sbimbgCTR | LOSavg 39¢ | $1.1K | $435.23 | +$5.51 | 68% 2711-1296 (4007) |
AM am100 | Team Secret Whalesavg 61¢ | $355.71 | $352.79 | -$2.92 | 56% 937-736 (1673) |
Invested
$9,709
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$38.65
Record
57%
857-635 (1492)
Invested
$3,256.69
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$38.1
Record
62%
23-14 (37)
Invested
$1,783.76
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$45.35
Record
54%
49-42 (91)
Invested
$1,101.84
Value
$435.23
PnL
+$5.51
Record
68%
2711-1296 (4007)
Invested
$355.71
Value
$352.79
PnL
-$2.92
Record
56%
937-736 (1673)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.