Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold LOS, while the market favors Team Secret Whales (64%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold LOS (67%) · LOS at 36¢ · $740 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
LOS
3
LOS 67%
$739.82
-$32.42
37¢ → 36¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLOS at 36%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Team Secret Whales 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dancingmonkey1CTR | LOSavg 37.1¢ | $628.5 | $575.29 | -$44.74 | 54% 1175-1013 (2188) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Team Secret Whalesavg 59¢ | $132.21 | $143.41 | +$12.32 | 47% 1966-2195 (4161) |
PI PIPIZINCTR<$100 | LOSavg 34¢ | $21.12 | $21.12 | +$0 | 52% 366-342 (708) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.