Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 44%
$2.0K
$-1.4K
51.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE delacsynzy1CTR | Overavg 51.8¢ | $2.0K | $540.87 | $-1.5K | 51% 414-402 (816) |
CC ccllarCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $459 | $459 | +$0 | 46% 378-439 (817) |
SP spartachio | Underavg 51¢ | $277 | $268.85 | -$8.15 | 50% 633-638 (1271) |
PI PIPIZINCTR | Overavg 57¢ | $300 | $265.79 | -$34.21 | 51% 378-362 (740) |
NE newwman | Underavg 70.1¢ | $180.3 | $255.77 | +$75.48 | 52% 858-782 (1640) |
A8 a8999CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $581.17 | $133.04 | +$11.86 | 45% 995-1234 (2229) |
 Xeny | Underavg 70.6¢ | $113.69 | $61.51 | +$7.96 | 60% 967-653 (1620) |
JI jiafan<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $36.92 | $35.15 | -$1.77 | 59% 1428-980 (2408) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $10 | $8.11 | -$1.89 | 67% 22312-10898 (33210) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$540.87
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
51%
414-402 (816)
Invested
$459
Value
$459
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
378-439 (817)
Invested
$277
Value
$268.85
PnL
-$8.15
Record
50%
633-638 (1271)
Invested
$300
Value
$265.79
PnL
-$34.21
Record
51%
378-362 (740)
Invested
$180.3
Value
$255.77
PnL
+$75.48
Record
52%
858-782 (1640)
Invested
$581.17
Value
$133.04
PnL
+$11.86
Record
45%
995-1234 (2229)
XenyInvested
$113.69
Value
$61.51
PnL
+$7.96
Record
60%
967-653 (1620)
Invested
$36.92
Value
$35.15
PnL
-$1.77
Record
59%
1428-980 (2408)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.11
PnL
-$1.89
Record
67%
22312-10898 (33210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.