LoL: Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (20%) · Bilibili Gaming at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26

Karmine Corp30¢Bilibili Gaming70¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 20%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$36.69

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karmine Corp30%

Bilibili Gaming71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming1 trader

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,363

Combined PnL+$16.82

Karmine Corp4 traders

Total Value$738.89

Total Shares2,513

Combined PnL+$19.88

Bilibili Gaming — 20%Karmine Corp — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Bilibili Gamingavg 70¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$16.82	57% 1281-982 (2263)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Karmine Corpavg 28¢	$282.75	$302.95	+$20.2	47% 1955-2177 (4132)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Karmine Corpavg 28¢	$279.99	$289.99	+$5	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
AJ AJSVCTR	Karmine Corpavg 30¢	$150	$145	-$5	36% 12781-22373 (35154)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Karmine Corpavg 30¢	$10.54	$0.95	-$0.32	65% 6460-3412 (9872)

vibing123

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$2,354.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$16.82

Record

57%

1281-982 (2263)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$282.75

Value

$302.95

PnL

+$20.2

Record

47%

1955-2177 (4132)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$279.99

Value

$289.99

PnL

+$5

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

AJSVCTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$150

Value

$145

PnL

-$5

Record

36%

12781-22373 (35154)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Karmine Corp

Invested

$10.54

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.32

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.