LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Invictus Gaming (83%) · Invictus Gaming at 62¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 29

Invictus Gaming62¢LYON38¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Invictus Gaming

Consensus Traders

Invictus Gaming 83%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$21.89

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralInvictus Gaming at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Invictus Gaming

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Invictus Gaming62%

LYON39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Invictus Gaming5 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares13,976

Combined PnL+$30.75

LYON1 trader

Total Value$233.49

Total Shares591

Combined PnL-$8.87

Invictus Gaming — 83%LYON — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Invictus Gamingavg 61¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$30.22	67% 29-14 (43)
LL llllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlI	Invictus Gamingavg 61¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$25	59% 792-559 (1351)
DA dancingmonkey1	Invictus Gamingavg 59.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$24.61	54% 1234-1068 (2302)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	LYONavg 41¢	$242.35	$233.49	-$8.87	47% 2358-2622 (4980)
MP mpyh	Invictus Gamingavg 60¢	$144.48	$145.68	+$1.2	69% 1140-519 (1659)
GH ghorrock<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 61¢	$35.17	$34.88	-$0.29	57% 12797-9706 (22503)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$3,687.26

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$30.22

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

llllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlI

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$3,050

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$25

Record

59%

792-559 (1351)

dancingmonkey1

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$1,568.07

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$24.61

Record

54%

1234-1068 (2302)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

LYON

Invested

$242.35

Value

$233.49

PnL

-$8.87

Record

47%

2358-2622 (4980)

mpyh

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$144.48

Value

$145.68

PnL

+$1.2

Record

69%

1140-519 (1659)

ghorrock<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$35.17

Value

$34.88

PnL

-$0.29

Record

57%

12797-9706 (22503)

Research grade

NeutralInvictus Gaming at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Invictus Gaming

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Invictus Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.