Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$381.02

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares14,748

Combined PnL+$649.55

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,100

Combined PnL-$268.53

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$6.3K	$6.3K	+$3.16	98% 2416-60 (2476)
JustADonkCTR	Underavg 55.1¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$112.75	55% 824-673 (1497)
A8 a8999	Overavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$389.39	45% 839-1045 (1884)
NE newwman	Overavg 56¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	+$98.1	52% 713-650 (1363)
TI timetowanderCTR	Underavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$15	51% 358-348 (706)
Xeny	Overavg 57.1¢	$808.94	$524.87	+$148.54	60% 895-589 (1484)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 52.8¢	$530	$436.52	-$93.48	51% 998-954 (1952)
Up0nly	Overavg 98.7¢	$343.58	$346.32	+$2.74	68% 915-429 (1344)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 93.8¢	$173.36	$309.78	+$136.43	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
└ Under leg	Underavg 9.2¢	$49.56	$235.22	+$185.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 93.8¢	$123.8	$74.56	-$49.24
basedciganyCTR	Underavg 52.8¢	$268.26	$220.95	-$47.3	57% 200-153 (353)
StudyPrediction<$100	Overavg 42¢	$44.09	$51.44	+$7.35	51% 3613-3472 (7085)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 56¢	$30	$30.27	+$0.27	71% 17700-7191 (24891)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$6,316.56

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$3.16

Record

98%

2416-60 (2476)

JustADonkCTR

Under

Invested

$2,527.95

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$112.75

Record

55%

824-673 (1497)

a8999

Over

Invested

$2,226.26

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$389.39

Record

45%

839-1045 (1884)

newwman

Over

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$98.1

Record

52%

713-650 (1363)

timetowanderCTR

Under

Invested

$1,319.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

358-348 (706)

Xeny

Over

Invested

$808.94

Value

$524.87

PnL

+$148.54

Record

60%

895-589 (1484)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$530

Value

$436.52

PnL

-$93.48

Record

51%

998-954 (1952)

Up0nly

Over

Invested

$343.58

Value

$346.32

PnL

+$2.74

Record

68%

915-429 (1344)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$173.36

Value

$309.78

PnL

+$136.43

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Both legs:

Under$49.569.2¢+$185.67

Over$123.893.8¢-$49.24

basedciganyCTR

Under

Invested

$268.26

Value

$220.95

PnL

-$47.3

Record

57%

200-153 (353)

StudyPrediction<$100

Over

Invested

$44.09

Value

$51.44

PnL

+$7.35

Record

51%

3613-3472 (7085)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$30.27

PnL

+$0.27

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.