Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Invictus Gaming, while the market favors Hanwha Life Esports (73%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Invictus Gaming (50%) · Invictus Gaming at 28¢ · $41K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Invictus Gaming
6
Invictus Gaming 50%
$41.3K
-$32.55
27¢ → 27.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidInvictus Gaming at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hanwha Life Esports 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Invictus Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YY YYYYY999CTR | Invictus Gamingavg 27¢ | $34.7K | $34.7K | -$0 | 49% 7148-7311 (14459) |
HU humbleboy | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 73¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$22.5 | 54% 398-333 (731) |
SU suleng66 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 73¢ | $2.7K | $2.0K | -$13.7 | 64% 180-102 (282) |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Invictus Gamingavg 27¢ | $999.99 | $999.99 | -$0 | 55% 670-557 (1227) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Invictus Gamingavg 27¢ | $270 | $270 | +$5 | 69% 4242-1916 (6158) |
FI five5120<$100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 74¢ | $100 | $98.65 | -$1.35 | 70% 315-136 (451) |
Invested
$34,681.56
Value
$34.7K
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
7148-7311 (14459)
Invested
$3,285
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$22.5
Record
54%
398-333 (731)
Invested
$2,739.73
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$13.7
Record
64%
180-102 (282)
Invested
$999.99
Value
$999.99
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
670-557 (1227)
Invested
$270
Value
$270
PnL
+$5
Record
69%
4242-1916 (6158)
Invested
$100
Value
$98.65
PnL
-$1.35
Record
70%
315-136 (451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.