Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 77¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$7.2K
$23.98
76.3¢ → 76.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Underavg 75.6¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | +$53.19 | 58% 758-558 (1316) |
AM am100 | Underavg 77.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$33.22 | 57% 867-659 (1526) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 22¢ | $440 | $440 | +$0 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
PL pltrkr111 | Underavg 76¢ | $230.63 | $232.15 | +$1.52 | 55% 673-557 (1230) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 23¢ | $115 | $110 | +$2.5 | 69% 4261-1921 (6182) |
Invested
$4,484.79
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$53.19
Record
58%
758-558 (1316)
Invested
$1,906.21
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$33.22
Record
57%
867-659 (1526)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$440
Value
$440
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$230.63
Value
$232.15
PnL
+$1.52
Record
55%
673-557 (1230)
Invested
$115
Value
$110
PnL
+$2.5
Record
69%
4261-1921 (6182)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.