Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$565.75

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares8,275

Combined PnL-$570.88

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,212

Combined PnL+$5.13

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE delacsynzy1CTR	Overavg 41.9¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$622.56	51% 402-394 (796)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$3.03	99% 9320-131 (9451)
BA BAPEHUKCTR	Overavg 39¢	$166.23	$234.43	+$68.2	50% 355-348 (703)
Up0nlyCTR	Overavg 42¢	$800.21	$18.44	-$747.26	68% 924-438 (1362)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	Overavg 42.3¢	$292.82	$6.93	-$285.89	47% 799-916 (1715)
CC ccllarCTR	Overavg 43¢	$233.92	$5.44	-$228.48	46% 362-430 (792)
AJ AJSV<$100	Underavg 57¢	$2.85	$4.95	+$2.1	36% 13086-22900 (35986)

delacsynzy1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$622.56

Record

51%

402-394 (796)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$2,202.75

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$3.03

Record

99%

9320-131 (9451)

BAPEHUKCTR

Over

Invested

$166.23

Value

$234.43

PnL

+$68.2

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

Up0nlyCTR

Over

Invested

$800.21

Value

$18.44

PnL

-$747.26

Record

68%

924-438 (1362)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

Over

Invested

$292.82

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$285.89

Record

47%

799-916 (1715)

ccllarCTR

Over

Invested

$233.92

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$228.48

Record

46%

362-430 (792)

AJSV<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$2.1

Record

36%

13086-22900 (35986)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.