Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares16,289

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.44

Total Shares2,875

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE delacsynzy1	Overavg 57.4¢	$3.3K	$5.7K	+$2.4K	51% 402-394 (796)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 96.4¢	$6.0K	$5.7K	+$215.62	99% 9320-131 (9451)
NE newwman	Overavg 69.2¢	$3.1K	$4.4K	+$1.4K	52% 724-656 (1380)
StudyPrediction	Overavg 57¢	$213.49	$370.8	+$157.31	51% 3677-3531 (7208)
PI PIPIZIN<$100	Overavg 57¢	$35.64	$62.5	+$26.86	51% 368-356 (724)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Underavg 42¢	$997.68	$1.19	-$996.48	49% 931-957 (1888)
FR fraagenCTR	Underavg 43¢	$215	$0.25	-$214.75	48% 47-51 (98)

delacsynzy1

Over

Invested

$3,300

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

51%

402-394 (796)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$6,023.41

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$215.62

Record

99%

9320-131 (9451)

newwman

Over

Invested

$3,050.91

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

724-656 (1380)

StudyPrediction

Over

Invested

$213.49

Value

$370.8

PnL

+$157.31

Record

51%

3677-3531 (7208)

PIPIZIN<$100

Over

Invested

$35.64

Value

$62.5

PnL

+$26.86

Record

51%

368-356 (724)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Under

Invested

$997.68

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$996.48

Record

49%

931-957 (1888)

fraagenCTR

Under

Invested

$215

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$214.75

Record

48%

47-51 (98)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.