LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (75%) · Gen.G at 84¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Gen.G
4
Gen.G 75%
$15.0K
$172.72
82.8¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGen.G at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LlamaEnjoyer | Gen.Gavg 82¢ | $6.7K | $6.8K | +$121.8 | 83% 2108-427 (2535) |
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Gen.Gavg 83.5¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | -$0.51 | 58% 756-556 (1312) |
AM am100 | Gen.Gavg 84¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$0 | 57% 861-655 (1516) |
25 254321758CTR | LYONavg 16¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$51.43 | 69% 418-187 (605) |
LlamaEnjoyerInvested
$6,658.4
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$121.8
Record
83%
2108-427 (2535)
Invested
$4,612.22
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$0.51
Record
58%
756-556 (1312)
Invested
$1,909.71
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
861-655 (1516)
Invested
$1,645.62
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$51.43
Record
69%
418-187 (605)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.