Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 100¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$249.32

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares8,859

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares7,778

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-39 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$2.37	99% 9320-131 (9451)
Reformedx	Underavg 58¢	$1.7K	$3.0K	+$1.3K	53% 729-657 (1386)
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538	Underavg 58.4¢	$642	$1.1K	+$457.45	64% 1038-583 (1621)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 41.4¢	$1.2K	$908.56	-$304.2	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
A8 a8999CTR	Overavg 42.8¢	$722.66	$522.84	-$721.82	45% 861-1068 (1929)
CL CLj0711CTR	Overavg 42.7¢	$448.13	$325.56	-$122.57	44% 274-355 (629)
CC ccllarCTR	Overavg 43.4¢	$433.99	$310	-$123.99	46% 362-430 (792)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	Overavg 42.6¢	$382.12	$278.07	-$104.05	47% 799-916 (1715)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 99¢	$10	$10.09	+$0.09	71% 18115-7363 (25478)
LU LucasCosta.CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$51.6	$0.12	-$51.48	41% 295-416 (711)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Overavg 42.4¢	$52.55	$0.09	-$39.46	36% 13086-22900 (35986)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$4,744.48

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$2.37

Record

99%

9320-131 (9451)

Reformedx

Under

Invested

$1,739.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

729-657 (1386)

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538

Under

Invested

$642

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$457.45

Record

64%

1038-583 (1621)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,212.76

Value

$908.56

PnL

-$304.2

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

a8999CTR

Over

Invested

$722.66

Value

$522.84

PnL

-$721.82

Record

45%

861-1068 (1929)

CLj0711CTR

Over

Invested

$448.13

Value

$325.56

PnL

-$122.57

Record

44%

274-355 (629)

ccllarCTR

Over

Invested

$433.99

Value

$310

PnL

-$123.99

Record

46%

362-430 (792)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

Over

Invested

$382.12

Value

$278.07

PnL

-$104.05

Record

47%

799-916 (1715)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$0.09

Record

71%

18115-7363 (25478)

LucasCosta.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.6

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$51.48

Record

41%

295-416 (711)

AJSVCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.55

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$39.46

Record

36%

13086-22900 (35986)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-39 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.