LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (50%) · Gen.G at 84¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 26

Gen.G84¢LYON16¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 50%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$28.58

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 84¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gen.G84%

LYON16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G2 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,926

Combined PnL+$28.27

LYON2 traders

Total Value$384.93

Total Shares2,406

Combined PnL+$0.31

Gen.G — 50%LYON — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 83¢	$5.7K	$4.7K	+$28.27	58% 736-541 (1277)
AM am100	Gen.Gavg 84¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0	57% 846-645 (1491)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	LYONavg 16¢	$374.92	$374.92	-$0	47% 1966-2195 (4161)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	LYONavg 17¢	$10.63	$10	+$0.31	69% 4242-1916 (6158)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$5,653

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$28.27

Record

58%

736-541 (1277)

am100

Gen.G

Invested

$1,909.71

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

846-645 (1491)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

LYON

Invested

$374.92

Value

$374.92

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1966-2195 (4161)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$10.63

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.31

Record

69%

4242-1916 (6158)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.