LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (40%) · Gen.G at 90¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26

Gen.G90¢LYON10¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 40%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$174.13

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 89.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gen.G90%

LYON11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,775

Combined PnL+$28.9

LYON3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares30,338

Combined PnL+$145.23

Gen.G — 40%LYON — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on LYON) and the top 1000 (3 on Gen.G) disagree here.

whaleLYON 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpGen.G 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLYON 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedLYON 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FR freeman123	Gen.Gavg 89¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$21.52	82% 505-110 (615)
norrisfanCTR	LYONavg 10¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$147.35	43% 453-597 (1050)
arjennnnn	Gen.Gavg 89¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.37	71% 780-311 (1091)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	LYONavg 11¢	$79.25	$72.04	-$7.2	36% 12781-22373 (35154)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	LYONavg 7¢	$10.35	$14.7	+$5.09	69% 4216-1907 (6123)

freeman123

Gen.G

Invested

$3,826.99

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$21.52

Record

82%

505-110 (615)

norrisfanCTR

LYON

Invested

$2,947.04

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$147.35

Record

43%

453-597 (1050)

arjennnnn

Gen.G

Invested

$1,312.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.37

Record

71%

780-311 (1091)

AJSVCTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$79.25

Value

$72.04

PnL

-$7.2

Record

36%

12781-22373 (35154)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$10.35

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$5.09

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on LYON) and the top 1000 (3 on Gen.G) disagree here.

whaleLYON 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpGen.G 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLYON 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedLYON 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.