Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 62¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$7.8K
$235.18
59.2¢ → 61.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Underavg 58.1¢ | $4.5K | $4.7K | +$262.66 | 58% 768-560 (1328) |
AM am100 | Underavg 62.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$30.04 | 57% 872-662 (1534) |
 forsenxdCTR | Overavg 37.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$3.17 | 53% 867-768 (1635) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 37¢ | $370 | $370 | +$5 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $90.62 | $91.36 | +$0.74 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
Invested
$4,476.53
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$262.66
Record
58%
768-560 (1328)
Invested
$1,418.44
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$30.04
Record
57%
872-662 (1534)
forsenxdCTRInvested
$1,236.59
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$3.17
Record
53%
867-768 (1635)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$370
Value
$370
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$90.62
Value
$91.36
PnL
+$0.74
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.