Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$165.58

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares7,066

Combined PnL+$307.19

Over3 traders

Total Value$773.41

Total Shares2,797

Combined PnL-$472.77

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$646.48	99% 9244-131 (9375)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Underavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$557	49% 926-956 (1882)
NE newwman	Underavg 56.6¢	$642.58	$720.84	+$275.08	52% 718-654 (1372)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 42¢	$534.76	$483.83	-$50.93	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
RN1	Underavg 57.2¢	$286	$405	+$119	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
BA BAPEHUKARB<$100	Overavg 42¢	$268.84	$320.6	+$13.87	50% 353-347 (700)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$420	$190	+$5
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$83.84	$130.6	+$8.87
MA MaktManCTR	Overavg 41¢	$410	$190	-$300	61% 22-14 (36)
A8 a8999CTR	Overavg 42.4¢	$248.13	$99.59	-$121.84	45% 857-1064 (1921)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 71.7¢	$20	$22.58	+$2.58	71% 18039-7315 (25354)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$3,417.1

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$646.48

Record

99%

9244-131 (9375)

Gooooooollllllllll

Under

Invested

$1,247.68

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$557

Record

49%

926-956 (1882)

newwman

Under

Invested

$642.58

Value

$720.84

PnL

+$275.08

Record

52%

718-654 (1372)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$534.76

Value

$483.83

PnL

-$50.93

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

RN1

Under

Invested

$286

Value

$405

PnL

+$119

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

BAPEHUKARB<$100

Over

Invested

$268.84

Value

$320.6

PnL

+$13.87

Record

50%

353-347 (700)

Both legs:

Invested

$410

Value

$190

PnL

-$300

Record

61%

22-14 (36)

a8999CTR

Over

Invested

$248.13

Value

$99.59

PnL

-$121.84

Record

45%

857-1064 (1921)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$22.58

PnL

+$2.58

Record

71%

18039-7315 (25354)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.