LoL: Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dplus KIA (57%) · Dplus KIA at 72¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 26

Dplus KIA72¢Movistar KOI28¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dplus KIA

Consensus Traders

Dplus KIA 57%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

-$11.78

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDplus KIA at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dplus KIA

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dplus KIA72%

Movistar KOI28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dplus KIA4 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares14,035

Combined PnL+$117.79

Movistar KOI3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares9,541

Combined PnL-$129.57

Dplus KIA — 57%Movistar KOI — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDplus KIA 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMovistar KOI 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Dplus KIA 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Dplus KIAavg 70¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$111.56	58% 756-556 (1312)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Dplus KIAavg 71¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15.61	65% 17-9 (26)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Movistar KOIavg 30¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$130.3	47% 1967-2201 (4168)
AM am100	Dplus KIAavg 72¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$24.31	57% 861-655 (1516)
forsenxdCTR	Movistar KOIavg 28.1¢	$709.16	$719.88	+$10.73	53% 808-730 (1538)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Dplus KIAavg 70¢	$696.5	$711.43	+$14.93	49% 910-939 (1849)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Movistar KOIavg 30¢	$150	$140	-$10	69% 4251-1917 (6168)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Dplus KIA

Invested

$5,205.9

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$111.56

Record

58%

756-556 (1312)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Dplus KIA

Invested

$2,217.07

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15.61

Record

65%

17-9 (26)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$1,954.45

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$130.3

Record

47%

1967-2201 (4168)

am100

Dplus KIA

Invested

$1,785.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$24.31

Record

57%

861-655 (1516)

forsenxdCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$709.16

Value

$719.88

PnL

+$10.73

Record

53%

808-730 (1538)

Gooooooollllllllll

Dplus KIA

Invested

$696.5

Value

$711.43

PnL

+$14.93

Record

49%

910-939 (1849)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$150

Value

$140

PnL

-$10

Record

69%

4251-1917 (6168)

Research grade

NeutralDplus KIA at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Dplus KIA

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDplus KIA 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMovistar KOI 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Dplus KIA 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dplus KIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.