Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$175.02

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares6,663

Combined PnL+$609.55

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,091

Combined PnL-$434.53

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NE newwman	Underavg 66.3¢	$3.7K	$2.6K	+$298.81	52% 716-652 (1368)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 70¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$58.37	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
└ Under leg	Underavg 70¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$40.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.3¢	$671.25	$769.81	+$98.56
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Underavg 56¢	$2.5K	$1.7K	+$289.67	49% 924-956 (1880)
LZ lzh1CTR	Overavg 42¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$380	43% 416-546 (962)
StudyPredictionCTR	Overavg 40¢	$365.84	$320.11	-$45.73	51% 3634-3492 (7126)
iceblue-	Underavg 59.4¢	$130.41	$148.07	+$17.66	43% 681-900 (1581)
A8 a8999CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$70.38	$61.59	-$8.8	45% 854-1062 (1916)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 63.2¢	$50	$53.4	+$3.4	71% 17969-7285 (25254)

newwman

Under

Invested

$3,727.71

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$298.81

Record

52%

716-652 (1368)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,811.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$58.37

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

Both legs:

Under$1,140.2570¢-$40.2

Over$671.2528.3¢+$98.56

Gooooooollllllllll

Under

Invested

$2,518.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$289.67

Record

49%

924-956 (1880)

lzh1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,679.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$380

Record

43%

416-546 (962)

StudyPredictionCTR

Over

Invested

$365.84

Value

$320.11

PnL

-$45.73

Record

51%

3634-3492 (7126)

iceblue-

Under

Invested

$130.41

Value

$148.07

PnL

+$17.66

Record

43%

681-900 (1581)

a8999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.38

Value

$61.59

PnL

-$8.8

Record

45%

854-1062 (1916)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$53.4

PnL

+$3.4

Record

71%

17969-7285 (25254)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.