Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$5.5K
$9.47
57.6¢ → 54.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE delacsynzy1 | Overavg 58¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$120.69 | 51% 399-383 (782) |
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR | Underavg 41¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$120.78 | 58% 758-558 (1316) |
 StudyPrediction | Overavg 57¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$50 | 51% 3601-3465 (7066) |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $871.5 | $944.13 | +$72.63 | 49% 913-942 (1855) |
PI PIPIZIN | Overavg 57¢ | $302.1 | $302.1 | -$13.25 | 52% 367-343 (710) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$120.69
Record
51%
399-383 (782)
Invested
$1,100.44
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$120.78
Record
58%
758-558 (1316)
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,139.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$50
Record
51%
3601-3465 (7066)
Invested
$871.5
Value
$944.13
PnL
+$72.63
Record
49%
913-942 (1855)
Invested
$302.1
Value
$302.1
PnL
-$13.25
Record
52%
367-343 (710)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.