LoL: Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dplus KIA (56%) · Dplus KIA at 72¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 26

Dplus KIA72¢Movistar KOI28¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dplus KIA

Consensus Traders

Dplus KIA 56%

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$1.87

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDplus KIA at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dplus KIA

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dplus KIA72%

Movistar KOI28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dplus KIA5 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares13,756

Combined PnL+$128.05

Movistar KOI4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares9,107

Combined PnL-$126.17

Dplus KIA — 56%Movistar KOI — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Movistar KOI) and the top 1000 (8 on Dplus KIA) disagree here.

sharpDplus KIA 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMovistar KOI 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Dplus KIA 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Dplus KIAavg 70¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$111.56	58% 756-556 (1312)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Dplus KIAavg 70¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$39.07	49% 910-939 (1849)
AM am100	Dplus KIAavg 72¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$24.31	57% 861-655 (1516)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Movistar KOIavg 30¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$122.74	47% 1967-2201 (4168)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Dplus KIAavg 71¢	$629.88	$629.88	+$0	65% 17-9 (26)
forsenxdCTR	Movistar KOIavg 28.1¢	$412.32	$418.89	+$6.57	53% 808-730 (1538)
VeryLucky888CTR	Movistar KOIavg 28¢	$280	$280	+$0	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
PL pltrkr111	Dplus KIAavg 71¢	$245.81	$247.54	+$1.73	55% 670-557 (1227)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Movistar KOIavg 30¢	$150	$140	-$10	69% 4251-1917 (6168)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Dplus KIA

Invested

$5,205.9

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$111.56

Record

58%

756-556 (1312)

Gooooooollllllllll

Dplus KIA

Invested

$1,823.14

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$39.07

Record

49%

910-939 (1849)

am100

Dplus KIA

Invested

$1,785.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$24.31

Record

57%

861-655 (1516)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$1,841.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$122.74

Record

47%

1967-2201 (4168)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Dplus KIA

Invested

$629.88

Value

$629.88

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

17-9 (26)

forsenxdCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$412.32

Value

$418.89

PnL

+$6.57

Record

53%

808-730 (1538)

VeryLucky888CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$280

Value

$280

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

pltrkr111

Dplus KIA

Invested

$245.81

Value

$247.54

PnL

+$1.73

Record

55%

670-557 (1227)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$150

Value

$140

PnL

-$10

Record

69%

4251-1917 (6168)

Research grade

NeutralDplus KIA at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Dplus KIA

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Movistar KOI) and the top 1000 (8 on Dplus KIA) disagree here.

sharpDplus KIA 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMovistar KOI 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Dplus KIA 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dplus KIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.