Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Dplus KIA (50%) · Dplus KIA at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26

Dplus KIA52¢Movistar KOI48¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dplus KIA

Consensus Traders

Dplus KIA 50%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$51.91

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 51.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDplus KIA at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dplus KIA

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dplus KIA52%

Movistar KOI49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dplus KIA3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,243

Combined PnL+$124.77

Movistar KOI3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,390

Combined PnL-$72.86

Dplus KIA — 50%Movistar KOI — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMovistar KOI 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Dplus KIA 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Dplus KIAavg 49¢	$3.4K	$1.7K	+$84.03	58% 736-541 (1277)
RO rookie765CTR	Movistar KOIavg 51¢	$3.3K	$1.6K	-$83.17	67% 100-50 (150)
AM am100	Dplus KIAavg 51.8¢	$890.44	$890.44	-$0	57% 846-645 (1491)
forsenxdCTR	Movistar KOIavg 48¢	$791.28	$799.53	+$8.24	51% 607-593 (1200)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Dplus KIAavg 48¢	$1.2K	$599.51	+$40.74	49% 898-936 (1834)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Movistar KOIavg 52¢	$215.63	$199.04	+$2.07	69% 4242-1916 (6158)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Dplus KIA

Invested

$3,361

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$84.03

Record

58%

736-541 (1277)

rookie765CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$3,326.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$83.17

Record

67%

100-50 (150)

am100

Dplus KIA

Invested

$890.44

Value

$890.44

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

846-645 (1491)

forsenxdCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$791.28

Value

$799.53

PnL

+$8.24

Record

51%

607-593 (1200)

Gooooooollllllllll

Dplus KIA

Invested

$1,164.09

Value

$599.51

PnL

+$40.74

Record

49%

898-936 (1834)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$215.63

Value

$199.04

PnL

+$2.07

Record

69%

4242-1916 (6158)

Research grade

NeutralDplus KIA at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Dplus KIA

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMovistar KOI 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Dplus KIA 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dplus KIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.