Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.3K
$454.62
40.6¢ → 56¢
+38% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1 | Noavg 39.5¢ | $563.18 | $776.12 | +$212.94 | 63% 367-220 (587) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 40.3¢ | $577.1 | $672.57 | +$52.54 | 50% 1785-1817 (3602) |
TR troim | Noavg 41¢ | $410 | $545 | +$135 | 36% 379-675 (1054) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 40.5¢ | $103.36 | $138.89 | +$35.53 | 53% 1055-950 (2005) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e | Noavg 47¢ | $116.56 | $135.17 | +$18.6 | 82% 226-50 (276) |
clazzy1Invested
$563.18
Value
$776.12
PnL
+$212.94
Record
63%
367-220 (587)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$577.1
Value
$672.57
PnL
+$52.54
Record
50%
1785-1817 (3602)
Invested
$410
Value
$545
PnL
+$135
Record
36%
379-675 (1054)
Invested
$103.36
Value
$138.89
PnL
+$35.53
Record
53%
1055-950 (2005)
Invested
$116.56
Value
$135.17
PnL
+$18.6
Record
82%
226-50 (276)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.