Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 5.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$2.6K
-$16.13
97.1¢ → 99.4¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 97.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$10.67 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 96.1¢ | $280.95 | $266.06 | -$3.93 | 63% 1003-581 (1584) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 98.7¢ | $237.56 | $232.53 | -$5.02 | 50% 23388-23002 (46390) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.1¢ | $25.27 | $27.32 | +$2.05 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.5¢ | $1.05 | $2.38 | +$1.33 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.4¢ | $1.36 | $1.36 | +$0 | 50% 10147-10036 (20183) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 1.1¢ | $0.06 | $0.17 | +$0.12 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
Invested
$2,069.62
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$10.67
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$280.95
Value
$266.06
PnL
-$3.93
Record
63%
1003-581 (1584)
Invested
$237.56
Value
$232.53
PnL
-$5.02
Record
50%
23388-23002 (46390)
Invested
$25.27
Value
$27.32
PnL
+$2.05
Record
49%
11291-11571 (22862)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$1.33
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$1.36
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
10147-10036 (20183)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.17
PnL
+$0.12
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.