Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$32.33

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 96.8¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,981

Combined PnL-$54.52

Over3 traders

Total Value$274.09

Total Shares2,284

Combined PnL+$86.85

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 91.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$43.99	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
RN1	Underavg 88¢	$896.62	$899.02	+$2.4	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 90¢	$509.13	$497.82	-$11.31	66% 190-98 (288)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 7.2¢	$158.56	$263.73	+$105.17	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 91¢	$49.04	$47.42	-$1.62	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Overavg 8.1¢	$85.4	$6.36	-$18.98	58% 974-714 (1688)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$3.33	$4	+$0.67	55% 2195-1816 (4011)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,228.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$43.99

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

RN1

Under

Invested

$896.62

Value

$899.02

PnL

+$2.4

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$509.13

Value

$497.82

PnL

-$11.31

Record

66%

190-98 (288)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$158.56

Value

$263.73

PnL

+$105.17

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$49.04

Value

$47.42

PnL

-$1.62

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85.4

Value

$6.36

PnL

-$18.98

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.33

Value

PnL

+$0.67

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.