Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 3.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 90¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$114.93

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 89.5¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,500

Combined PnL-$83.07

Over2 traders

Total Value$662.83

Total Shares2,977

Combined PnL-$31.86

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 81¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$50.23	58% 974-714 (1688)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 81.7¢	$716.26	$683.94	-$32.32	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 23.1¢	$674.68	$642.83	-$31.86	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 78¢	$31.91	$31.91	-$0	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 79.8¢	$23.21	$22.69	-$0.52	53% 2002-1777 (3779)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$20	$20	+$0	50% 10147-10036 (20183)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$1,284.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$50.23

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$716.26

Value

$683.94

PnL

-$32.32

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$674.68

Value

$642.83

PnL

-$31.86

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$31.91

Value

$31.91

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$23.21

Value

$22.69

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

2002-1777 (3779)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$20

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.