Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 56¢ · $498 held · ends Oct 26

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$497.56

Combined PnL

$0.6

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$418.82

Total Shares741

Combined PnL-$0.31

Over1 trader

Total Value$78.74

Total Shares181

Combined PnL+$0.91

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	Underavg 56.7¢	$300.1	$298.84	-$1.26	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 56¢	$111.36	$89.89	+$1.19	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$77.83	$78.74	+$0.91	62% 5463-3346 (8809)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 57¢	$29.07	$28.81	-$0.26	57% 23972-18438 (42410)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 56¢	$1.27	$1.28	+$0.01	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$300.1

Value

$298.84

PnL

-$1.26

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$111.36

Value

$89.89

PnL

+$1.19

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.83

Value

$78.74

PnL

+$0.91

Record

62%

5463-3346 (8809)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$29.07

Value

$28.81

PnL

-$0.26

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.01

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.