Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 71¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$574.86

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 70.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,303

Combined PnL+$438.46

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,163

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 70.1¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$195.98	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.2¢	$1.9K	$998.56	-$946.99	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 70¢	$668.99	$812.35	+$143.36	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 70.3¢	$592.72	$692.39	+$99.67	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 86¢	$430	$425	-$5	51% 1128-1071 (2199)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 31¢	$115.5	$74.47	-$41.03	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
└ Under leg	Underavg 31¢	$90.66	$43.87	-$46.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 69¢	$24.84	$30.6	+$5.76
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$87.49	$43.75	-$43.74	53% 15491-13677 (29168)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 71.2¢	$23.04	$27.49	+$4.45	55% 7805-6337 (14142)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 27.9¢	$41.17	$22.14	-$19.04	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 26.4¢	$8.98	$5.1	-$3.88	55% 2195-1816 (4011)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$4.59	$4.92	+$0.33	58% 974-714 (1688)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,821.29

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$195.98

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,945.55

Value

$998.56

PnL

-$946.99

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$668.99

Value

$812.35

PnL

+$143.36

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$592.72

Value

$692.39

PnL

+$99.67

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$430

Value

$425

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

1128-1071 (2199)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$115.5

Value

$74.47

PnL

-$41.03

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

Both legs:

Under$90.6631¢-$46.79

Over$24.8469¢+$5.76

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$87.49

Value

$43.75

PnL

-$43.74

Record

53%

15491-13677 (29168)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$23.04

Value

$27.49

PnL

+$4.45

Record

55%

7805-6337 (14142)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.17

Value

$22.14

PnL

-$19.04

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.98

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$3.88

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.59

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.