Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 0.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

-$874.43

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares21,885

Combined PnL-$912.21

Under2 traders

Total Value$156.98

Total Shares1,427

Combined PnL+$37.78

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LA landighertz	Overavg 99.9¢	$11.3K	$10.1K	$-1.2K	99% 1107-4 (1111)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 90.1¢	$6.7K	$7.6K	+$138.09	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
RN1	Overavg 90¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$77.52	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
MI MinevaJ	Overavg 92¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$106.91	58% 974-714 (1688)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 8.3¢	$117.82	$155.46	+$37.64	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$1.39	$1.53	+$0.14	49% 11291-11571 (22862)

landighertz

Over

Invested

$11,316.53

Value

$10.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

99%

1107-4 (1111)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$6,702.86

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$138.09

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,624.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$77.52

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

MinevaJ

Over

Invested

$1,089.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$106.91

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$117.82

Value

$155.46

PnL

+$37.64

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.